Predicting future conflict between team-members with parameter-free models of social networks

摘要

Despite the well-documented benefits of working in teams, teamwork alsoresults in communication, coordination and management costs, and may lead topersonal conflict between team members. In a context where teams play anincreasingly important role, it is of major importance to understand conflictand to develop diagnostic tools to avert it. Here, we investigate empiricallywhether it is possible to quantitatively predict future conflict in small teamsusing parameter-free models of social network structure. We analyze data ofconflict appearance and resolution between 86 team members in 16 small teams,all working in a real project for nine consecutive months. We find thatgroup-based models of complex networks successfully anticipate conflict insmall teams whereas micro-based models of structural balance, which have beentraditionally used to model conflict, do not.